With all the hoopla surrounding Climate Change and the approaching El Niño, suddenly the world is focused on the weather and a myriad of conflicting scientific observations and conclusions, heretofore ignored by most in the past. But for those of us involved in grazing livestock and dependent on the bounties of Mother Nature, October is the beginning of our rainy season as we try to look ahead into our futures.
Historically, “The Old Farmer’s Almanac” has offered as accurate a forecast as any:
PACIFIC SOUTHWEST
November 2023
4° below average
Precipitation 5” (1” below average)
December 2023
4° below average
Precipitation 3” (4” below average)
January 2024
3° below average
Precipitation 5” (1” below average)
February 2024
2° above average
Precipitation 6.5” (2” above average)
March 2024
3° above average
Precipitation 1.5” (2.5” below average)
April 2024
2° above average
Precipitation 5” (1.5” above average)
May 2024
2° above average
Precipitation 0.5” (1.5” below average)
June 2024
1° below average
Precipitation 0.05” (1” below average)
For what it’s worth, the rain total comes to 27”, well above our 15” average. We’ll just have to wait and see.
We are among the many home and ranch owners whose insurance policies have been canceled because they were located in the revised California’s High Risk Fire Area that includes almost half of the state.
Drought conditions in 2017, 2018, 2020 and 2021 combined with poorly maintained PGE transmission lines in Northern California charred over 8 million acres that left insurance companies holding the bag for losses and fire suppression costs. After a month-long process, we found one other carrier with less coverage at twice the cost.
A decade or so ago, Tulare County used to spray the weeds on the shoulders of Dry Creek Road to reduce fire danger from catalytic converters, hot brakes and dragging safety chains. Currently, 4-foot tall dry weeds encroach on the eroding asphalt adding to our risk of fire.
An independent onsite inspection was necessary to establish baseline conditions for home, barns, tack room and shop. I waited at the end of the driveway for the inspector from the Bay Area who had become lost. Up the drive in a cloud of dust she parked in the shade of a redbud as I followed in the Kubota. As she stepped out of her 2017 Chevy Volt, it began to roll down the slope, as she grabbed the door trying both to hold it and to get back in, towards our 500 gallon fire-fighting water wagon to veer at the last moment into the skid steer. She could have been seriously injured.
Though the hybrid rocked the skid steer upon impact, it survived unscathed. After assessing the damages to her car, we tied the plastic together with duct tape and hay string and tested the brake and turn signal lights. Drivable and legal, she went about her business of asking questions and photographing the structures while I showed her our firebreaks, plumbing for filling fire trucks and water wagon from our wells, while explaining that I had even stopped one fire myself with the skid steer.
Having made it home safely, she conducted the remainder of her inspection with questions over the phone and texts over the next two days. I repeated many of the photographs she had taken because of the glare from her cell phone, plus additional pictures of electrical service boxes and their manufacturers with interiors of all structures. In order not to have to dedicate another afternoon for another inspection, I essentially accomplished the onsite portion of her inspection.
I recount this calamitous and ill-advised process from a 75 year-old’s perspective, dumbfounded by the inefficient technological progress in that span of years. Frankly, she had no more business navigating and assessing rural California than we would be navigating and judging San Francisco, the ironic culture clash between us resounding loudly.
I think we’ve finally caught up and close to being on time with our ranch work since the last Atmospheric River at the end of March. We got across the creek towards the end of April when flow was down to 90 cfs to see our cows while trying to get our fences up to hold them when we gathered and weaned. Since the ARs, Dry Creek is spider-webbed with streams of sand in new high-water channels requiring some leveling with the skid steer to replace fencing and to approach the creek. Meanwhile on this side of the road and creek, we’ve had a crew building fence to better accommodate the acreage changes since Robbin and I have scaled down our activities.
But on time, our first bunch of calves will be weaned and ready for Visalia Livestock Market’s “Off the Grass Sale” on Wednesday, May 17th. They are 7-weight Vintage-sired steers. The market has been strong, though slightly weaker lately. With our cow numbers down due to acreage changes and past years of drought, we will need whatever extra money the market will offer us.
After seven days a week for nearly two months, it’s a relief to feel caught up.
Top: Jim Wells, Leroy Whitney, Scott Erickson. Middle: Jack Erickson, Kyle Loveall, Gary Davis, Jr., Forrest Homer, Mehrten Homer, E. J. Britten, Earl McKee, Jr. Bottom: Clarence Holdbrooks, John Dofflemyer, Craig Thorn III.
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