Tag Archives: El Niño

The Farmers Almanac vs. El Niño Predictions

 

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                    Pacific Southwest Summary:
 

 

Although the early part of the winter season will feature above normal rainfall, the drought will continue as rainy periods will diminish in the season’s second half and precipitation will be below-normal for the winter season as a whole, with below-normal mountain snows not helping ease the drought. The stormiest periods will be in mid- to late November, early to mid-December, early January, and early March. Overall, temperatures will be slightly cooler than normal. The coldest period will be in late December, with other cold periods in early and late January and mid-February.

April and May will be cooler and slightly rainier than normal.

Summer will be hotter than normal, with near-normal rainfall. The hottest periods will be in early June, early to mid- and late July, and early to mid- and late August.

September and October will be slightly cooler than normal, with near-normal rainfall.

Facing continued smoke from the Rough Fire and 110 degrees before week’s end, we’re looking forward to the end of summer.

 

SIGN OF SOMETHING

 
The pair of eagles
returning early to ride
our foothill thermals

elicits surprise:
‘what do they know that we don’t?’
we agree to say.

No water, no place
to fish in a four-year drought—
it must be something.

 

The Weather

 

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It’s difficult, after four years of drought, to think in terms of rain. Making preparations for a wet winter may offend the superstitious, or seem contrary to the priorities of recent years, but Daniel Swain’s blog offers a most comprehensive forecast for the coming months. Should California be the target of a “Record-strength El Niño,” its impact on the West may be exacerbated by current and recent wildfires.

 

Rough Fire

83,000+ acres
25% containment
@ Cedar Grove, Converse Basin, Buck Rock Lookout

 

GODZILLA HAIKUS

 

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Any day now—soon,
any day, the pundits say
we might wash away.

We dig for water,
bring David and the backhoe’s
hydraulic muscle:

big jaws and steel teeth—
hope and pray to break some loose
to water cattle.

California’s map
in flames, burning inside out
to greet El Niño.

 

YEAR OF THE FROG

 

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My brother, the old farmer, says
that it’s about over, that out
in the Valley where I seldom stray,

brand new drilling rigs rise
every two miles above the orchards,
out of corn fields reaching past

underground rivers that have lost
their way—like locusts, like aliens
descended to pound and perforate

the earth with steel, pneumatic
proboscises, they shine
through sun and starlight.

In the garden, the damp earth
moves, as if alive, with tree frogs
and toads traveling the shade

from flower leaf to vegetable
like a plague, like a sign
at the end of farming

or this drought, or for El Niño rains?
All the wishing at the wellhead
doesn’t matter to a tree frog.

 

 

Very strong El Niño likely during autumn/winter 2015-2016; significant impacts possible in California